NFL midseason QB EPA rankings: Joe Burrow trending up, Brock Purdy trending down

The following tidbits involving these quarterbacks are factual statements at the midpoint of the 2023 NFL regular season:

It’s all about context, though, as you would imagine reading the above information.

This week I’ll examine how quarterbacks stand midway through the season. I’ll focus primarily on EPA per dropback (also passer rating inside my analysis) to provide an outlook on the state of the position. I’ve chopped the charts into overall rates, Weeks 1-4 rates and Weeks 5-9 rates.

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I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 10.

Nos. 1-8

It goes to show how well Purdy, Tagovailoa and Josh Allen opened the season to maintain top three midseason EPA rates given how much each passer has fallen in Weeks 5-9.

Tagovailoa produced his worst EPA rate (-0.25) and passer rating (87.0) of the season in Miami’s Week 9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Purdy is coming off the worst three-game stretch of his young career in Weeks 6-8. And Allen has been up and down in the last five weeks leading to the Buffalo Bills’ 2-3 mark over that span.

For Mahomes, he produced the worst Weeks 1-4 EPA rate and passer rating (92.0) of his career this season. Of course, those aren’t poor numbers for many of today’s quarterbacks. His passer rating jumped a bit in Weeks 5-9 at 100.2, but his EPA rate stayed about the same. All good numbers, just not Herculean-type Mahomes numbers.

C.J. Stroud caught my eye in Week 2 for the Houston Texans when he produced a 0.14 EPA rate and 103.5 passer rating in a loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Then he yielded a combined 0.42 EPA rate and 115.0 passer rating in Weeks 3 and 4. He tailed off some the next three weeks (-0.02 EPA rate, 84.8 passer rating). But you could argue he played the best game of any QB this season in Houston’s thrilling Week 9 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 0.60 EPA rate and 147.8 passer rating.

Good thing the New York Jets offense was completely inept in Week 9 against the Los Angeles Chargers because Justin Herbert compiled the second-worst passer rating of his career at 65.4 and still won the game. This comes two weeks after Herbert had a 68.6 passer rating in a loss to the Chiefs. His -0.20 EPA rate against the Jets did Herbert’s overall rating no favors.

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Jalen Hurts started his surge in Week 7 and it hasn’t stopped for the Philadelphia Eagles passer. He’s amassed a 0.32 EPA rate and 125.5 passer rating in the past three weeks. Dak Prescott is riding a similar hot streak, even though the Eagles took down his Dallas Cowboys in Week 9. Prescott has compiled a 0.25 EPA rate and 120.7 passer rating in the last three games.

Nos. 9-16

Matthew Stafford’s passer rating (82.0) has been mediocre at best this season and his EPA rate has begun to regress as well. He’s an even bigger question for the Los Angeles Rams with his right thumb injury.

This seems like the NFC North quadrant of the program.

Jared Goff tallied a -0.15 EPA rate and 76.9 passer rating in his last two games, which isn’t great, but the well-rounded Detroit Lions picked him up against the Raiders. Kirk Cousins likely played his last game with the Minnesota Vikings following his Achilles tendon tear in Week 8. And it’s still hard to know what to make of Jordan Love. Can the Green Bay Packers QB yield his Week 9 rates (0.10 EPA rate, 115.5 passer rating) more often? Or is he more like the guy from the previous five games (-0.14 EPA rate, 66.6 passer rating)?

Lamar Jackson ranks first in completion percentage at 71.5 percent and seventh in passer rating at 100.8. Both of which are significant improvements from the past few years for the Baltimore Ravens quarterback. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints’ Derek Carr has tallied a 0.22 EPA rate and 119.6 passer rating in the last two games.

Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith have fallen a bit in the last few weeks, though the quarterbacks are trending in opposite directions after their Week 9 performances. Mayfield produced big-time numbers against the Texans (0.32 EPA rate, 119.4 passer rating), but came up short thanks to Stroud’s heroics. Smith, though, is coming off one of the worst games of his career in a Week 9 loss to the Ravens with a -0.50 EPA rate and 49.3 passer rating.

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Nos. 17-24

Burrow’s calf seems to have healed and his right arm is heating up. The Cincinnati Bengals QB is back to being one of the best in the league following stellar outings against the 49ers and the Bills in Weeks 8 and 9, respectively. You would imagine Burrow will climb in the EPA rankings as the year progresses.

Dobbs started strong with the Arizona Cardinals before yielding a -0.24 EPA rate and 65.5 passer rating in Weeks 5-8. Then he made his Vikings debut after never practicing with the first team following last week’s trade and somehow helped orchestrate a win over the Falcons in Week 9.

Jimmy Garoppolo also opened the season pretty strong, at least in terms of EPA rate. Then the Las Vegas Raiders QB tallied the worst EPA rate of his starting career in Week 8. He hit the bench in Week 9 and rookie Aidan O’Connell yielded a 0.25 EPA rate and 90.3 passer rating in the Week 9 win over the New York Giants.

The Washington Commanders have to be encouraged by Sam Howell’s progress in the past five weeks. Excluding Week 7, Howell produced a 0.07 EPA rate and 103.0 passer rating in Weeks 5-6 and 8-9. In Week 7, he had a -0.35 EPA rate and 60.5 passer rating in a loss to the Giants.

It’s a bit strange to find Trevor Lawrence closer to the bottom of this list given the Jacksonville Jaguars are 6-2. But he’s been slowly, but steadily, improving his rates. And it’s still not anything good for Russell Wilson in Year 2 with the Denver Broncos. Especially given Wilson compiled the worst EPA rate of his career in the Broncos’ Week 6 loss to the Chiefs.

I heard a CBS analyst say at halftime of the Chicago Bears’ Week 9 loss to the Saints that the Bears have to consider playing Tyson Bagent moving forward. Then the second half happened. Bagent has a -0.11 EPA rate and 70.9 passer rating. You play Justin Fields when he’s healthy.

Nos. 25-32

The Tennessee Titans announced Tuesday that they’re sticking with rookie Will Levis (-0.01 EPA rate, 96.4 passer rating in two games) and keeping Ryan Tannehill on the sideline. The Atlanta Falcons are rolling with Taylor Heinicke (0.10 EPA rate, 84.2 passer rating in two games) rather than Desmond Ridder.

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Now take your pick for the most discouraging former first-round QB rounding out the bottom six in these rankings.

Mac Jones and Daniel Jones have been consistently inconsistent all season. At least the New England Patriots don’t have fresh new money tied to their QB, unlike the Giants. Zach Wilson is still Zach Wilson for the New York Jets.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Kenny Pickett made a 0.27-EPA rate jump from Weeks 1-4 to Weeks 5-9. But nothing about his overall EPA rate and passer rating (81.6) screams massive improvement from his rookie season last year.

Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft,  is coming off the worst outing of his young career. He compiled a -0.42 EPA rate and 48.3 passer rating in the Carolina Panthers’ Week 9 loss to the Colts. This coming on the same day Stroud, the No. 2 pick, exploded for the Texans.

Deshaun Watson pulled himself out of the EPA basement during the Cleveland Browns’ Week 9 win. He produced a 0.03 EPA rate and 107.5 passer rating against the Cardinals.

Week 10 defense vs. QB EPA matchups

*QB situations with injury uncertainty

(Top photo of Joe Burrow: Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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